1.
Ever since that conversation, during which Prime Minister Netanyahu made it clear to one of the Haredi representatives that there was no chance of advancing the conscription law, that it was actually not good to advance it on the eve of an election, it was clear that the hourglass was ticking - and not in his favor.
Netanyahu, who is wise, should have understood that sometimes it is better to lose half a mandate, even two, in favor of a cohesive bloc that will go with you through thick and thin, under any conditions and at any cost. Such a bloc leaves the other side with only one option for forming a government: joining Arab parties. An option that does not go down the throats of a large portion of Israelis, certainly not after the massacre of October 7.
Now - after the dramatic decision of Maran Grat Lando - the 'bloc' that clung to Netanyahu even in an unpopulated country, as he was a full-fledged MK in the opposition, has collapsed, and Netanyahu is left alone in the campaign.
Is it possible that his intense involvement in the war zones - Gaza, Lebanon, Iran and Judea and Samaria - caused him to not concentrate enough on the political field and, apparently, to make the mistake of his life?
2.
Once, many months ago, even before he became an official opposition to the government, I had the opportunity to talk to the then Minister of Housing, Yitzhak Goldknopf. I tried to explain to him that both Degel and Shas think differently from him: they (still) believe in Netanyahu, and that even if he himself resigns, even if he manages to drag the then Deputy Minister Yaakov Tesler into the opposition with him, the Lithuanian Torah gurus believe that there is no room for compromise.
Not everyone knows the man. Some tend to mock his various statements. But anyone who has had in-depth conversations with Goldknopf knows that he is quite a smart guy on political issues. He explained to me then that there are things that flow naturally, that it is impossible for Gur and Wiznitz to resign - and the rest of the Haredi representation will remain in the coalition in its 'roundabout'. (My words, his idea).
In his opinion, it's simply the opposite of logic. For a long time I thought he was wrong. Because, look, the other Haredi representatives did indeed resign from their positions, but only 'as if.' They left offices, but continued to be loyal to the coalition. Okay, they boycotted this or that law here and there, but on substantive matters they stood up and said, 'Here I am.'.
3.
Today I finally understood what had been percolating in my head for weeks: There is a natural phenomenon of drift. The fact that two representatives resigned with great noise from the coalition, including an explicit statement that they would not vote in favor of the conscription law - did its job.
Netanyahu's statement that he is not interested in passing the conscription law until the elections has thrown all the chips down for everyone.
Suddenly it became clear that the delegation from Gur had foreseen in advance that this was exactly what would happen. They would drag and drag and drag, and drive and camp, and replace Yuli with Bismuth, and say 'Yuli is guilty' and 'Here is Boaz Bismuth's magic key,' and start wars, and go from 'Am Kalavi' to 'Ari's Roar,' and return to the same point: Netanyahu is not interested in passing the conscription law.
Now there will be those who will tell you: 'No, no, he wanted to, he just wanted to, it just dragged on and now it's impossible.' But there will also be the 'Babchikite' school that will say: 'We told you so.' He didn't want to in the first place.
Today it was proven that this school of thought also convinced the spiritual leader of Degel HaTorah, Maran HaGaradan Lando - who issued a firm statement: "We no longer believe in Netanyahu." Period. End of verse.
4.
From here, where to?
To all supporters of the 'change bloc', I propose today: Move the champagne bottles to the front of the refrigerator. There's a good chance you're going to uncork them after the elections. Whatever the outcome, in a situation where Netanyahu is left without a bloc, he will beg to join a Zionist government devoid of Haredim, and you - you can choose a winner's choice: either forgive him and heal all the anger you've accumulated over the years - or decide that you're giving up on the Haredim's obligation to conscript anyone who studies (with the emphasis on 'who studies'), giving up on sanctions, economic decrees that will primarily harm young children or women who want to go to work - and embark on a new political path, with the Haredim part of your government.
You will be surprised to discover that the Haredim do not intend to turn the country into a Halacha state, nor do they expect to receive budgets beyond what kibbutzim and other functionaries received in the past. A moment after you enact a conscription law, you will discover with astonishment that there are Haredim in IDF uniforms, those who are not interested in sitting and studying, but in view of what was called in the Haredi public 'decisions of the IDF', they were reluctant to cooperate with the army authorities.
When you release them - you will be surprised to discover how many of them end up. Not in Prison 10, in the KKOM. To enlist or serve national or civilian service.
5.
If the second option does happen, Netanyahu will be able to sit at home and rest from years of toil, write another book - and most importantly, take stock of his soul.
Because it seems that what he lacked in political understanding, despite his high IQ, was the insight that there are red lines that when you cross, the Haredim shout "Save us" and run from under your hands.
For a long time, the Haredi public has felt persecuted under the decrees. It blamed the High Court, the court, but it did not want to believe that you, Binyamin Ben Tzila, the one the Haredim clung to the hem of his robe even when he was accused of an indictment, even when he was boycotted by many parties, you are the one who will impose the law on them.
When it was revealed to them that you are the one who is now delaying the passage of the law, due to considerations of mandates, while their children are under threat of arrest in the middle of the night - you crossed the red line.
Write down this date for yourself, Netanyahu. Tuesday, the 25th of Iyar. If I were you, I would dedicate an entire chapter to it in a book that you will probably publish in the future.
