Senior political commentator Amit Segal's weekly column in Israel Hayom also managed to stir up a storm on the international forecasting website Polymarket.
After Segal labeled Avigdor Lieberman as a "calculated bet" in the race for prime minister, there was a sharp jump in the Yisrael Beitenu chairman's chances on the Polymarket website: from a single percent to 6.2% within a few hours.
The dramatic surge made Lieberman the fourth most likely candidate, after Benjamin Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot.
Polymarket, an international prediction market used by investors to bet on political outcomes and world events, operates in real time based on the flow of funds, and is therefore sometimes seen as a more dynamic measurement tool than traditional surveys.
The platform is gaining increasing popularity among political commentators, traders, and politics enthusiasts around the world.
In a column published in Israel This Week magazine, discussing the implications of the Bennett-Lapid union and the upcoming election campaign, Segal devoted space to the state of the odds on Polymarket. He noted that the site had raised Bennett's chances of becoming prime minister to 40 percent, "more or less on par with Netanyahu.".
Segal wrote: "If I had a million dollars to risk, I would probably spread the risks and invest equally between both. But if I had a thousand dollars to go wild with, on all or nothing, I would invest in someone who currently has a one percent chance: Avigdor Lieberman.".
Segal explained the logic behind the bet: Lieberman declared a week ago that he would be the next prime minister - a statement that was mocked - but according to Segal, it makes mathematical sense.
In a scenario where there are not 61 seats for the Zionist opposition and not 61 for the Netanyahu bloc, Lieberman could demand the premiership as a condition for entering the coalition, especially in light of his position that he will not return to serve in a government that relies on the RPA.
""Is the chance of that high? Not particularly," Segal concluded. "Is it higher than the single percent at Polymarket? Absolutely. To me, it sounds like an interesting opportunity for a calculated gamble.".
As mentioned, after Segal's turn was announced, money began to flow into the position on Lieberman, and the odds jumped to almost 7% within a few hours.
Segal commented on the jump: "Of course, not a recommendation. I was just trying to clarify a point about what is happening in the change bloc. If the bet is successful, they will charge a ten percent commission.".
