Less than a week until the lists close: Yesterday (Tuesday), Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin announced a joint run, and the Likud is considering transferring Tali Gottlieb to Otzma Yehudit.
Data from a mandate survey by the i24 channel, conducted by the Direct Polls polling institute headed by Zuriel Sharon, and published this evening (Wednesday), indicates a tie between the blocs - for the first time since mid-May, with the right-wing bloc receiving 60 mandates.
According to the poll, if the elections were held today, the Likud would receive 27 seats, an increase of one seat compared to the last i24 Channel poll on August 26. Gadi Eisenkot's Right Left Party remains stable with 23 seats, while the "Democrats" drop by one seat and receive 9 seats.
Bennett's Together Party gains one seat and receives 9 seats, United Torah Judaism remains stable with 8 seats, the Joint List gains one seat and receives 7, and Otzma Yehudit also gains one seat and also stands at 7 seats.
The Shas party is still bleeding with 7 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu is down one seat and receiving 7 seats. Religious Zionism is strengthening by two seats compared to the last poll and after the alliance with Feiglin, and receiving 6 seats.
The list is closed by the Ra'am party, which after Yoav Segalovich's armor loses one seat and receives 5 seats, and Winter's Amach Yisrael party, which also receives 5 seats, after receiving eight in the previous poll.
For the first time since mid-May, the coalition has 60 seats, the opposition has 48 seats, and the Arab parties have 12 seats.
The parties that do not pass the threshold and receive less than 1%: Ahi, El Degal, Beit Zioni, HaAchdut, Hakonot, Hizbollah, Haredi Public, Israel First, Blue and White, Noam LeIsrael, Black Color.
How will a combination of Smotrich and Winter affect the mandate map?
The survey also examined the possibility of Ofer Winter and his party uniting with Religious Zionism and Identity into a party called the 'Union of Right-Wing Parties' led by Smotrich, while Tali Gottlieb would move to Otzma Yehudit.
In such a case, the Likud loses one seat and gains 26 seats, Yashar remains stable with 23 seats, the union of right-wing parties brings 11 seats, which leaves the number of seats for the two parties separately the same - six for Smotrich and Feiglin, and five for Winter. The Democrats also bring nine seats in this situation, as does the Beitar party, which also remains with nine seats.
United Torah Judaism remains with eight seats, Otzma Yehudit strengthens by one seat and brings eight seats, the Joint List remains with seven seats, as do Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas, which each remain with seven seats. The Ra'am party closes the list with five seats.
The picture of mandates between the blocs remains the same in this situation as well.
The sample was collected and compiled by Direct Polls Ltd., headed by Tzuriel Sharon, for the i24NEWS channel, on September 2, 2026, using a digital system combined with a panel, among 522 adult respondents (18+) who constitute a representative sample of the population in Israel. The statistical sampling error is ±4.2% with a probability of 95%.
