Two in-depth studies conducted for two parties from different blocs indicate a severe crisis in Aryeh Deri's situation and a sharp decline in the electoral power of the Shas party.
This is what senior political commentator Amit Segal reveals in his weekly column in Israel Hayom.
Segal wrote: "In two studies, by two different parties from different blocs, it appears that Shas is in a serious problem. In one survey, it has 7 seats, in the second - 6.".
Segal poses the question: "Who are the Shas deserters? After all, the party is historically composed of two groups: Sephardic Haredim, and traditional Mizrahi.
""This is where the incident starts to get more intriguing," he writes. "According to one study, most of the defectors are Haredim who are disappointed by the party's inaction in the face of what they see as state persecution of Torah scholars. According to the second study, it's exactly the opposite: voters who say they and their children serve in the army are angry about the evasion and budget cuts. The last month of Knesset legislation, which came at a high price for Likud, was the result of Deri's persuasion efforts, mainly to signal to the Haredi base that he has not been abandoned, but has Shas also been harmed?""
Here an equally important question arises - where do the defectors migrate? If it is a transition to Ben-Gvir or Netanyahu, the bloc will absorb it. However, studies also show a simultaneous decline in enthusiasm to vote. "There is even an argument that a small but significant portion migrated to Gadi Eisenkot, the first realistic candidate in the history of the State of Israel of Mizrahi origin," Segal writes.
Segal refers to the large gap between the polls by Shlomo Filber and the Direct Polls Institute headed by Zuriel Sharon, which are published on Channel 14 and Channel i24, and the polls on left-wing channels - and writes: "If Shas loses seats, the unimaginable gap between the various polls narrows slightly. Part of it stems from the fact that in the Channel 14 and 24 polls the ultra-Orthodox maintain their strength, with the argument being that it is impossible for the group with the largest natural increase in the Western world not only not to grow but also to shrink. Ostensibly, there is an explanation here.
However, Segal has reservations: "Still, one caveat - Shas has contested 15 election campaigns. In most of them, it finished with a higher number than the polls predicted. Almost half a century after its founding, research institutes are still having trouble reaching its voters, a years-long Bermuda Triangle that has shattered quite a few models. Since Deri returned to the leadership of Shas, more than a decade ago, the party has always beaten early predictions. It would be foolish to rush and eulogize.".
