Israel is expressing real concern about the possibility that Iran will rebuild its ballistic missile array in a relatively short time - if the issue is not addressed within the framework of the agreement between the US and Iran.
A senior Israeli official told IDF Radio: "The negotiations currently underway between Iran and the US do not include a discussion on the issue of ballistic missiles, which is not on the table at all. This is disturbing.".
The defense establishment warns that the lack of reference to the missile issue in the emerging agreement could lead to another round of fighting with Iran "within a short period of time.".
According to Doron Kadosh's report on the Israeli Defense Forces, the IDF Intelligence Branch presented a graph to the senior military command and the political echelon in recent days - presenting an intelligence assessment regarding the pace of missile restoration in Iran.
The graph includes three lines:
Red line - which shows the number of missiles that Iran would have accumulated, if Israel had not launched the last campaign - 'The Roar of the Harrier'. According to the assessment of the Intelligence Agency, in such a situation Iran would have reached about 8,000 ballistic missiles within about a year and a half from now. Within two and a half years, Iran would have had about 11,000 ballistic missiles if not for the last campaign.
Orange line and yellow line - which show the Intelligence Agency's assessment of the number of missiles that Iran will be able to produce now, after the campaign and the ceasefire, if there are no restrictions on it within the framework of the political agreement that will be reached.
This is a complex intelligence assessment, because it is subject to a large number of variables that must be included in the "equation" - will China supply Iran with raw materials for missile production and planetary mixers, which are a critical component in the production process? Will Iran decide to invest all of its resources and money in the missile industry - or will the volume of investments in this industry be significantly reduced after the severe economic blows it has suffered?
All of these questions leave a certain range that makes it very difficult to accurately estimate - but according to the assessment of the Intelligence Agency - in both the severe and the probable scenario, Iran could, if it wanted to and invested in it, accumulate within a very few years - a stockpile of thousands of missiles. We are talking about a few thousand in the probable scenario, and many more thousands in the severe scenario.
Israel has defined a "red line" regarding Iran's ballistic missile arsenal - that is, a specified number of missiles - that cannot be tolerated, and if Iran comes close to crossing it - it is required to launch an attack against it. This is several thousand missiles - an arsenal that air defense systems will have difficulty dealing with.
The meaning is clear: an agreement that does not include clear and unambiguous restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile industry will, with some probability, lead to a situation in which Iran will return to investing in missile production, will invest money in it - which will likely be allowed following such an agreement, and will renew its arsenal within a very few years.
Even if the US succeeds in forcing Iran to remove its enriched uranium from its territory, and even agree to stop enriching uranium, as long as the missile issue is not addressed in the agreement - then another round against Iran within a very few years - to once again harm the missile industry - is a scenario that Israel defines as "quite likely.".
